Market Watch

2019 Mid-Year Real Estate Review

Posted on July 17, 2019 by Robyn Erlenbush

Now that the initial six months of 2019 have slipped into the rearview mirror, it is a good time to check real estate market statistics to see how we are stacking up thus far against the last two years.

As we look at inventory levels for single family housing throughout the Gallatin Valley, the number of available homes in the Bozeman city limits, rural Bozeman and Manhattan/ Three Forks has fallen (ranging from 12% to 29%) while Belgrade has more units for sale (up 9%).  The number of sales decreased in the same areas by 4% to 10% and increased in Belgrade by 12%. However, both average and median sales prices are up in all of those same markets. The average price in the Bozeman city limits ended up at $497,609 with a median of $437,000. The Big Sky market has shown a decline in active units, an increase in homes sold, and an increase in the average sold price to $2,063,482 and median sold price to $1,687,500. Park County was flat in the number of available homes, decreased in units sold, and increased the average sales price to $428,544 and median to $310,250.

Condos and townhomes make up a vital portion of the local market with dramatic increases in the available inventory in both Bozeman city limits and the surrounding area. The number of sales has remained fairly static in the city limits for the last two years while there has been more fluctuation in the outlying area. Average sales prices are approximately $340,000 in those areas with the median near $325,000. The Belgrade and Park County markets both are showing declines in the number of available units yet have increased sales figures. Average and median prices of sold units are up in the former and down in the latter market.

A quick glance at absorption rates, which are a good indicator of how quickly homes are selling and the overall health of the market, breaks down each market segment by price point. Within the Bozeman city limits for single family housing, homes priced $600,000 and below are most certainly considered a seller’s market but move toward a buyer’s market as prices continue upward. The area surrounding Bozeman is mostly a seller’s market despite a couple price points, all the way to the $800,000 mark. Belgrade’s market is moving towards a more balanced opportunity for sellers and buyers. With 108 sold single family homes in the $300,000-$350,000 range in the last 12 months, the market has a 4.6 month supply of inventory. Belgrade’s scale tips at the $400,000 point, increasing to 8.3 months for the market to absorb the active listings. In comparison, for the same type of home in Bozeman city limits, we are moving through active listings within 2.6 months.  Park County’s most vibrant market has shifted to $250,000 and under as buyers have shown resistance to the increasing values, causing homes above that price point to stay on the market for 8 or more months.

The Big Sky Country MLS June Housing Supply Overview reported, “After several years of declining inventory and supply, more and more housing markets are beginning to find their way toward a state of balance in terms of available listings. There is still work to be done, but the situation is not as dire as it once was. For the 12-month period spanning July 2018 through June 2019, Pending Sales in Gallatin County were up 0.9 percent overall. The price range with the largest gain in sales was the $449,000 or more range, where they increased 20.3 percent.”

As we move forward, continued good news in terms of low mortgage rates should keep willing and able buyers at the ready for when inventory hits the market.

If you are interested in further information on the market statistics, please contact your ERA Landmark Real Estate agent today.

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Agents: Robyn Erlenbush
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